Wednesday, September 5, 2007

Playing the same numbers.

I know a few people who go to the convenience store twice a week and play the same numbers over and over again. Could this be a good strategy? The odds say know, but I figured I'd run some of my own tests using the numbers chosen from the previous post. I ran tests for 1 game, 10 games, 100, 1,000, and so on to measure the odds over time. Here's the results:

You played 1 games costing you $1 and you won back $0.
You played 10 games costing you $10 and you won back $0.
You played 100 games costing you $100 and you won back $6.
You played 1,000 games costing you $1,000 and you won back $125.
You played 10,000 games costing you $10,000 and you won back $1,089.
You played 100,000 games costing you $100,000 and you won back $21,613.
You played 1,000,000 games costing you $1,000,000 and you won back $324,431.
You played 10,000,000 games costing you $10,000,000 and you won back $2,019,222.

We can see from these numbers why people say that the lottery is a game for people who aren't good at math. I remain determined to improve upon this, but it's late, so I'll jump back in with another method later.

Best out of 1,000,000 draws

Step 1: Find some odds of each number being drawn.

Using Powerball's system of randomly drawing five white balls (numbered 1-55) and
one red ball (numbered 1-42), I simulated one million draws. Here are the results (the number in [] is the ball number and the number after it is how many times it was one of the drawn balls):


WHITE:

    [22] => 91557
[30] => 91404
[39] => 91285
[3] => 91278
[36] => 91258
[29] => 91228
[49] => 91152
[1] => 91152
[51] => 91146
[28] => 91142
[15] => 91118
[47] => 91107
[17] => 91103
[2] => 91096
[27] => 91073
[11] => 91058
[26] => 91056
[41] => 91035
[21] => 91029
[20] => 91017
[24] => 91007
[18] => 91000
[44] => 90999
[4] => 90987
[12] => 90986
[13] => 90956
[38] => 90947
[5] => 90946
[10] => 90934
[8] => 90924
[6] => 90920
[40] => 90909
[25] => 90893
[48] => 90887
[53] => 90871
[35] => 90856
[14] => 90835
[54] => 90801
[37] => 90742
[33] => 90718
[45] => 90708
[19] => 90698
[43] => 90675
[16] => 90664
[50] => 90650
[46] => 90645
[32] => 90624
[52] => 90606
[31] => 90597
[9] => 90589
[7] => 90581
[42] => 90467
[55] => 90459
[23] => 90371
[34] => 90254


RED:
    [24] => 24117
[23] => 24109
[18] => 24003
[12] => 23998
[42] => 23990
[16] => 23982
[28] => 23976
[35] => 23954
[9] => 23943
[6] => 23943
[15] => 23933
[1] => 23923
[8] => 23922
[5] => 23919
[22] => 23917
[30] => 23909
[39] => 23885
[33] => 23882
[34] => 23868
[38] => 23853
[36] => 23813
[40] => 23807
[11] => 23805
[27] => 23800
[32] => 23787
[3] => 23760
[7] => 23754
[17] => 23741
[25] => 23739
[29] => 23735
[10] => 23729
[41] => 23706
[13] => 23689
[2] => 23666
[20] => 23658
[14] => 23647
[19] => 23626
[26] => 23550
[21] => 23534
[31] => 23534
[37] => 23470
[4] => 23424

So if we were to just bet on the above figures, we would play:
white: 22, 30, 39, 3, 36
red: 24

In the last 2 games, I would have gotten 1 number each if I had bought 1 line per game with these numbers. That wins $0. Clearly, there are more numbers to crunch.

Introduction and Goals

Hi. My name is Joe and I am a fan of math. I'm also a fan of money, and I think I can use one to get the other. I'm 32 and in my time, I've seen math come into play just about everywhere. Lately, I've seen a lot of great examples of people using math to further their acheivements where you might not expect it (such as athletic competitions). I want to use math to win the lottery.

OK... I know... Everybody and their brother has tried all kinds of methods to increase their odds of winning. I'm not claiming to revolutionize the act of putting a buck on a lottery ticket and crossing your fingers. I also don't expect to win the jackpot. I just want to test some theories for fun. Yeah... I sound like a blast at parties, don't I?

So... How about the goals, then? I have a couple goals. First, I would like to generate a nice amount of data about the odds of winning using various methods for number selection and the odds of winning playing your same numbers over and over. Once I have all my data, I want to do some test runs without actually forking over any cash. If I come up with a reasonable amount of success, I then would like to put my theories to use with real cash.

From time to time, I will post methods, theories, and actual numbers. If you blow your paycheck based on this info, don't cry to me. However, if your drop a buck or two on a game and win anything worth bragging about, please comment about it in a post and tell a friend about my blog.

OK... Back to generating numbers. My first stats will be up shortly.

P.S. All my tests will use the Powerball as the lotto system of choice, since I'm in Arizona.